Edition 10: Football Betting Archetypes
Football is back, and so are our favorite types of football bettors
Good morning and welcome to another Monday morning edition of The Handle! In our 10th edition, we’re highlighting football betting archetypes for this upcoming season. Couldn’t be more excited to be 10 editions down steady and looking forward to keep pushing out content for all you readers.
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It’s the start of the best time of year for any recreational bettor, football season. Each Sunday (& Saturday for college football fans), there is no reason to leave the couch because you can watch 7+ consecutive hours of nationally broadcast football. Fans are used to betting on football through Super Bowl Squares and fantasy football so it’s not a surprise that football is the most popular sport in all of sports gambling. Books will take billions of dollars in handle from rabid NFL fans across the country, and we wanted to break down the various archetypes that make up the NFL betting ecosystem. We’re focusing on recreational bettors, rather than professional bettors for the sake of this newsletter and are hoping to cover the vast majority of casual football fans and bettors, so let’s jump in!
Bets openers without a model guy
Description: This guy is sharp enough to know that he has no edge on Sunday morning, but is an avid fan of football. He can tell you the gunners on almost every team and thinks of the year in terms of “football season” and “non-football season”. This guy isn’t doing any formal modeling but would whip you in trivia about your favorite team and thinks he deserves a seat at the table with Jim Nantz, Tracy Wolfson, and Tony Romo on CBS. Generally, this guy gambles for fun and may or may not have a small ability to pick out edges due to incessant fandom (if you have a really strong opinion on a team’s backup corners, you may be able to beat the market to that opinion being priced in). He sees betting as a point of pride, to prove his knowledge of football, and to give him a reason to never miss a snap, even of Jags Titans on TNF or a 9:30 am London game. He may not be the most fun to watch football with because of his intensity, and he really does think he knows what he is doing, but most of the time anything he bases his action off has already been factored into the line. As a result, he is a long-term loser, but less so than most other casual bettors.
Estimated EV: -2%
The 12:50 Sunday bettor
Description: This guy might not be the biggest football fan in the world, but he loves catching some action on Sunday with the fellas. He’s a big proponent of Redzone, wanting to absorb all the action he can. He’s usually not betting large amounts of money and is betting right before kick-off at the bar or in a mancave. He has no expectation to win, he just wants to hangout and have a good time. He’s not looking for an edge, knows he doesn’t have one, and sees gambling as one of his many part-time vices. In short, this guy should be a bookmaker’s dream. Betting into the most efficient market right before post, at a clip sustainable enough to last for years. This guy is effectively betting coin flips, knows that, and just wants to have a good time. If you want a sustainable loser on your book, figure out how to get this guy betting with you.
Estimated EV: -4.54% (A literal coin flip guy)
Parlay guy
Description: This is your same friend that recently fell for a multi-level marketing scam and also buys lottery tickets. He also loves to buy the Vegas Dave and Stu Feiner picks, the NFL equivalent of a lottery ticket. He just “knows” it’s gonna work out this time. Half the time, you can’t really tell whether he actually believes the nonsense he’s spewing about picking all the locks. He really thinks that picking 8 games against the spread is a power move, and thinks he can get rich quick off parlays. This guy generally also isn’t very good at math and will lose most weeks. Unfortunately, the week he wins, everyone is going to hear about it. He will talk about going professional in gambling, how everything he touches turns to gold. You’ll have yourself a nice little chuckle, knowing that the winning ticket only got him about 50% out of the hole he’s dug himself. Watch out for these guys and make sure that their relationship stays as healthy as possible with gambling and that they do not start chasing their losses with long-shot parlays.
Estimated EV: - Whatever his bankroll is
Teaser guy
Description: This guy might be the most sophisticated gambler of the group we’ve encountered so far, dabbling in the world of teasers. Teasers basically let you buy a given number of points on the spread and make selections similar to a parlay. One common teaser is the four-team thirteen-point teaser. Now, it goes without saying that teasers are still - EV, otherwise why would any book offer them? The teaser guy has seen the math and knows that teasers are - EV, but still feels like he can crank out an edge. Often, he knows better than to tease through zero (A - EV move, reach out if you have questions), and does it anyway because he thinks an exception applies with whatever his logic is. Teaser guy might even have multiple teasers going in one day, planning his late afternoon slate based on how his 1 pm record looks. He’s a relatively serious gambler, but still a long-time loser. He’s the guy who insists on watching a 13 point game after the two-minute warning to see if the Lions are going to cover his +15 against the Broncos.
Estimated EV: Anywhere between -3% and up depending on what prices he is getting on his teasers
DFS guy
Description: Believe it or not, the annoying guy who’s been doing DFS since the Obama administration might be the first guy we encounter with a real edge, assuming he has any sense of bankroll management and common sense. *To be clear*, we’re not talking about that one friend who won a DFS challenge one week and has been letting everybody hear about it every season since. We’re assuming this fellow is a moderately competent DFS player. If this guy thinks his DFS skill is going to translate into beating full game sides on Sunday, he could not be more wrong. On the other hand, if he thinks that he can beat props based on his DFS experience, the odds are he probably can. He’s not gonna beat betting into -120 a side props, nor is he going to beat props for significant sums of money (he’ll get limited if he’s any good), but he might actually have a fighting chance if he has a true understanding of probability and risk.
Estimated EV: Maybe 0-3%
Sunday Night Chaser
Description: This is your friend that does not have a healthy relationship with gambling. They bet more than they can afford to lose and let their emotions get fully encompassed by the amount they gamble. Normally, this newsletter is fun, or at least informative if not fun, but right now it is serious. If your friend is one of the people who bet more than they can afford to lose and chases losses with money they do not have, get them help. It’s unhealthy and unsafe to chase with a bad bet on Sunday night. Keep an eye on your friends, and make sure their sports gambling habit isn’t ruining their life, but something they do for fun.
Estimated EV: - Whole Bankroll
Hopefully we have had some fun learning about the various different types of football bettors, and most bettors likely do fit somewhere in this framework. Take care of your bankroll and look after your friends with a higher aptitude for risk and a steady diet of -EV parlays. Let us know if you think we missed any, and most importantly: HAPPY FOOTBALL SEASON FROM US AT THE HANDLE.
Miscellaneous Recent Consumption:
Press
FanDuel Sportsbook partnered up with Jordan Spieth as the “Face of FanDuel’s Sportsbook and Daily Fantasy Sports Golf Products”, per release. Given Spieth’s Dallas roots, FD could be eyeing influence and entry into Texas with legalization potentially on the horizon. Read more here.
Sportradar and FanDuel have extended their partnership through 2028 to US sports data including the NBA, MLB, and NHL. Check out the press release here.
Sportradar has filed for an IPO. Sportradar has a star-studded cap table including Mark Cuban, Michael Jordan, and institutions such as TCV and the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board. Bloomberg has more here.
Cashless payment provider Sightline Payments has become Sin City’s first fintech unicorn and hit a $1 billion valuation following a $244 million funding round led by Cannae Holdings. Casino.org has more here.
Jay Z has agreed to serve as the Vice-Chairman and be on the board of the directors of Fanatics Betting & Gaming Entity, joining CEO & 76ers/Devils owner Michael Rubin. Fanatics has teamed up with Kambi to submit their mobile operator bill in NYS. Fanatics also brought in former FanDuel CEO Matt King in an attempt to bolster credibility amidst a competitive landscape. Forbes has more here.
Barstool Sportsbook soft-launched in New Jersey this week, available to only 500 people so far in the Garden State. Penn Gaming is looking to gear up for football season. Legal Sports Report has more here.
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