Edition 05: I know futures are bad bets, and I’ll still bet them anyway
Inside the psychology of future bets
Good morning and welcome to another Monday morning edition of The Handle! We’re going to take you through our personal psychological warfare and observations when placing future bets (Bucks in 6, please).
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Inside The Psychology of Future Bets
Not to brag, but I consider myself something of a bookmaker’s dream when it comes to future bets. I place them with my heart against my better judgment, often into pools with > 20% hold percentages. I know there's a negative expected value. I know I should line shop. I know I would be better off rolling my bet over on the same team come playoff time most of the time, especially with long shots. All of this is to say I know better than to take +5000 futures bet that I know should probably be priced at more like +20000. Take a look at Captain Jack Andrews’ perspective below; Future bets provide sportsbooks with long-term liquidity in markets where they inherently possess sizable edges.
All this being said, so why do I do it?
Because as much as the super-involved gambling world likes to pretend it’s not the case, the preponderance of wagers placed (not necessarily dollars wagered) is by people who couldn’t tell you what the implied probability of whatever odds they bet. They couldn’t tell you the spread between the best available line and the line they bet, and that spread is almost never zero. And sometimes, I’m in that boat too.
I’m not betting life-changing sums of money, maybe $10-$20 on a big underdog who I think has a chance. I’m not placing the bet with the expectation of winning, and I’m not even sure that I think it’s a great bet when I place it. And that’s okay.
I’m placing the bet because I want something to root for, especially if it’s a sport where I don’t have a horse in the race. I want to be able to drink a beer with my buddies and watch the game, even better if we’re all in on the same future rallying behind every ebb and flow over the course of a given event. We joke about what we would do if we won, but we, at least most of us, aren’t naive. But I think about it like this, I get to sweat, which when you are betting $10, is really all the fun of it. I get to have a reason to watch the quarterfinals of Wimbledon with a strong rooting interest or whatever tournament it might be, and that itself makes me happy and gets me excited.
There’s something about the dopamine hit of betting on a long shot and watching each game closely with a long-term perspective, knowing your odds look better with each win. It comes down to a lack of impulse control and the evergreen enjoyment of having a stake in the journey and triumphs of a given team or player. It’s within human nature to strive for self-fulfilling feelings of every wager won and each step closer to cashing out a lucrative future or parlay.
The thing that those very involved in the gambling community forget is that these bets are good for everyone in the ecosystem.
Do I wish the bet won when it inevitably likely loses? Sure.
But do I regret that bet? Absolutely not.
I enjoyed my sweat and angst-filled adrenaline rush and consider it $10 well spent. And that bet is good for the gaming economy, providing capital to books who were willing to offer a robust futures market. Spanky explains the sportsbook benefit of offering futures below:
The casual bettor’s wager prevents the futures market from becoming oversaturated with sharp players looking to eke out the smallest advantage. While a sharper better is often wiser to find and take advantage of their edges each day or week, the casual better can enjoy the season or tournament with a long-term routing interest in their favorite team or player. While a huge Luka Dončić fan like myself might be better off investing in his Panini sports cards or a stake in his sports cards through emerging fractional card technology like Dibbs, any big-time Mavericks fan wants to let you know they had Luka to win MVP before the season.
Now, I want to add a few caveats before everyone tells me how I might as well burn my money.
First, I never tie up money in accounts that I would want to use for another bet, particularly in the short term. That futures bet I place is going to tie up my credit at PPH book and that’s something I know and live with. For any recreational bettor whose bookie trusts them and can bet responsibly, you can always just ask for more credit if you are not betting exorbitantly high amounts. With deposited money, I try to stay away from long-term futures. I’m talking about Super Bowl Futures in March, or World Cup Futures right now (big apology to the guy who bet Italy in the 2022 World Cup rather than the Euros. F’s in the chat for you).
I don’t want to give the book an interest-free loan in addition to almost all my EV, and I get why you don’t either. But when the investment in a future is more about the ride than the financial outcome, people are bound to do it anyway.
Second, I have what I consider to be a healthy relationship with betting. I can throw $5 on a game and feel fulfilled with my time and monetary investment. If you don’t have a healthy relationship with betting, futures might not be for you, as they encourage more and more risk-taking as you can start to count profits you do not have.
For recreational bettors, a given bet is the equivalent of throwing a dart at a dartboard and hoping to hit the bullseye. Not everybody will care to chase CLV, have the patience to search for edges or have the capability to crunch numbers and analyze markets.
All of this is to say, futures bets are fun, and this article was too. Not everything you read or every bet you place has to optimize for something tangible. Remember, sports betting is supposed to be fun. Enjoy it.
Miscellaneous Recent Consumption:
Twitter
As most of you saw, the WNBA All-Star Game over-under moved 50+ points, opening at 251.5 points at BetMGM and closing around 192 points over at PointsBet.
The line originated from Circa Sports, yet most big sportsbooks followed suit copying Circa’s line. Do better, Vegas & Offshores. Enough of the “CTRL C + CTRL V” bs.
Pods Worth Listening To!
Dan Lust breaks down NIL policy, below is a thread of his regarding Barstool Athletes we’ve been seeing all over social media. Look out for a NIL deep dive from us likely coming within the next few weeks, particularly through the lens of sports betting companies and affiliates.
Opportunities
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